Brazil's oil exports to China doubled in the first quarter as a result of the Iran war, according to federal government data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council.

The oil export volume in the first three months totaled $7.2 billion, compared with $3.7 billion in the same period of 2025, an increase of 94.6 percent. In all, 16 million metric tons were shipped, a growth of 122 percent from the previous year.

The main reason, cited by producers and geopolitical experts, is the ease of shipping Brazilian oil compared with oil leaving the Persian Gulf. The war in the Middle East led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which most oil from Arab countries passes. Iran's war strategy appears to have offset the distance Brazilian oil must travel to reach China.

Marcio Felix, president of the Brazilian Association of Independent Oil Producers, told China Daily the sector was caught off guard.

"It's important to note that recent geopolitical events have indeed generated volatility and demand spikes in the international oil market," Felix said. "For independent producers in Brazil, the ability to respond to these moves is limited in the short term, since oil production is not easily adjustable on short notice, especially in mature assets."

Felix said, however, that "companies have sought to maximize operational efficiency, reduce unscheduled downtime and optimize their assets to capture market opportunities whenever possible" to cope with the unexpected increase in demand.

"The sector has acted with caution and planning. Facing a more uncertain international scenario, independent producers stress the importance of regulatory predictability and institutional stability, essential factors to enable medium and long-term investments."

Other sectors also grew in the wake of the Iran war, which indirectly affects the United States and the European Union. Beef sales totaled $1.3 billion, up 33.8 percent, while in the mining sector, iron alloys more than doubled in value to $478 billion, with niobium up 63 percent and nickel up 29 percent.

Felix explained that Brazil is reliable suppliers of raw materials and industrial goods to the world.

Other sectors also grew in the wake of the Iran war, which indirectly affects the United States and the European Union. Beef sales totaled $1.3 billion, up 33.8 percent, while in the mining sector, iron alloys more than doubled in value to $478 billion, with niobium up 63 percent and nickel up 29 percent.

Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade said in a statement: "China is Brazil's top trading partner. In 2025, exports reached $100 billion, and total trade flow reached $171 billion. Seasonality is a common factor in foreign trade for various products and destinations, but the trade level with China, especially exports, has remained high over the last 20 years, at a steady growth rate. Moreover, since 2013, China has been the top buyer of Brazilian oil."

Geopolitical analyst Marco Fernandes, a member of the BRICS Civil Council — the economic group bringing together the five emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — argued that Brazil's oil exports also exposed some weakness of Brazil oil industry.

"Brazil benefits from higher oil export values," Fernandes said. "Given that the price per barrel has doubled from December 2025 levels, Brazil could set an export record this year, especially if the war drags on. However, this situation also exposes a Brazilian weakness: the country's insufficient oil refining capacity."