China is expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures during the upcoming flood season, with a precipitation pattern characterized by flooding in the north and drought in the south — trends that warrant attention but not excessive concern against the backdrop of global warming, meteorologists said.

According to the National Climate Center, temperatures across large parts of the country will be higher than normal from June to August, with highs exceeding 35 C, especially in southern China and the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

Floods and droughts are expected across different regions during this period. Areas such as Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan provinces, as well as Beijing and Tianjin, are predicted to receive 20 to 50 percent more precipitation than usual, with the potential for extreme heavy rainfall and flood disasters. Meanwhile, periodic drought conditions may affect Hubei and Hunan provinces, as well as Chongqing and Xinjiang.

Responding to recent online assertions that 2026 will see "the hottest summer with persistent extreme heat across large areas", Chen Lijuan, a senior forecaster at the National Climate Center, said such claims are exaggerated and that subjective expressions like "collapsing heat" have unnecessarily fueled public anxiety.

Chen said above-average temperatures do not indicate an uncontrollable situation, as heat waves are limited in both space and time. Some areas in northern China, for instance, are expected to experience high-temperature days in early summer, while southern China will see notable heat and drought in midsummer. During those periods, there may still be occasional cooling spells or rainfall events.

This aligns with recent weather forecasts, which suggest a periodic heat wave.

Cities in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei are expected to experience maximum temperatures above 35 C between May 9 and 13. If the forecast proves accurate, the high temperatures will arrive more than 10 days earlier than average. However, a cold spell is expected to interrupt the heat later this week.

El Nino factor

Zheng Fei, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said high temperatures and precipitation patterns expected over the next three months are part of the broader trend of global warming.

"While this is expected, it still requires attention, as the global average surface temperature increased around 0.6 C over the past century, with a 0.24 C rise in 2023 alone," he said.

Zheng said the potential development of El Nino conditions could be a major factor influencing climate patterns from June to August.

El Nino — a climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific — is highly likely to emerge this month, contributing to rising global average temperatures. It is expected to bring a slightly stronger-than-normal East Asian summer monsoon and a more intense western Pacific subtropical high extending farther west and north, resulting in increased moisture transport from the ocean and pushing the rain belt farther north.

"The El Nino event is expected to intensify during summer and autumn, reach moderate-to-strong intensity, peak this winter and then weaken the following spring. However, the probability of it developing into a super El Nino — comparable to the extreme events of 1997 or 2015- is only about 10 percent," Zheng said.

"It is currently predicted that the global mean surface temperature in 2026 will be between 1.43 C and 1.52 C above preindustrial levels, and it is highly likely to exceed 2025 levels, ranking among the top three warmest years since 1850," he said.

Notably, El Nino typically affects regions around the tropical Pacific first, with its thermal effects taking several months to reach Asia. Therefore, "the global mean surface temperature is predicted to reach a record high in 2027, making it the warmest year on record," Zheng said.

Cheng Lijing, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, also warned of more frequent and extreme weather disasters associated with El Nino, as substantial heat accumulated in the eastern tropical Pacific is released through evaporation and atmospheric circulation during such events.

"Weather disasters in recent years have been characterized by high intensity and short duration, so the possibility of destructive severe convective weather, like the heavy rainstorm in Beijing in 2025, cannot be ruled out," Cheng said.

Although such weather events remain extremely difficult to predict, the monitoring network is being continuously improved with artificial intelligence-driven technology, enabling more accurate forecasts, earlier warnings and better preparedness, he said.

"Therefore, the public need not be overly concerned," he added.

limenghan@chinadaily.com.cn